在7月初的一项民意调查中，58%的美国人表示，他们认为美国经济正在衰退.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.[1] 然而，许多经济指标，尤其是就业，依然强劲. The current situation is unusual, 对于衰退是否已经开始或即将到来，经济学家们几乎没有达成共识.[2]
Considering the high level of public concern, 看看官方是如何确定经济衰退的，以及当前显示美国经济强弱的一些指标，可能会有所帮助.S. economy.
Business Cycle Dating
U.S. 衰退和扩张是由美国国家经济研究局(NBER)的商业周期确定委员会(Business Cycle Dating Committee)正式测量和宣布的。, 一个私人的无党派组织，从1929年开始计算商业周期. The committee, which was formed in 1978, 包括八名专门从事宏观经济和商业周期研究的经济学家.[3]
美国国家经济研究局将经济衰退定义为“经济活动的显著下降，波及整个经济，并持续数月以上”.“委员会着眼于大局，并在适当情况下做出例外. For example, 2020年3月和4月的经济衰退是如此极端，以至于即使只持续了两个月，也被宣布为衰退.[4]
To determine peaks and troughs of economic activity, the committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. 由于官方数据通常会延迟一两个月才公布，而且模式可能只有在事后才清楚，因此委员会通常需要一段时间才能确定峰值或低谷. 一些短期衰退(包括2020年的衰退)在官方宣布之前就已经结束了.[5]
Strong Employment
Over the last few months, economic data has been mixed. 经通胀调整后，5月份消费者支出下降，但6月份反弹.[6] 6月零售销售强劲，但制造业产出连续第二个月下滑.[7] The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. 美国经济在6月份增加了37.2万个就业岗位，连续第三个月在这一范围内增长. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, 私营部门的就业率实际上更高(被政府就业的减少所抵消)。.[8]
The unemployment rate has been 3.连续4个月增长6%，与大流行前基本相同(3%).5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969.[9] 首次申请失业救济人数在7月中旬略有上升，但仍接近历史低点.[10] In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points.[11]
Negative GDP Growth
经济衰退的一个常见定义是实际国内生产总值(GDP)连续两个季度下降, and the current situation meets that criterion. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter.[12] Because GDP is reported on a quarterly basis, NBER委员会不能用它来衡量月度经济活动, 但该委员会确实着眼于更广泛地定义衰退.
Since 1948, the U.S. 美国经济从来没有经历过连续两个季度GDP负增长而不宣布衰退的. However, the current situation could be an exception, 由于强劲的就业市场和GDP数据的一些异常.[13]
Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. 贸易逆差，因为企业和消费者购买更多的进口商品来满足需求. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. 消费支出和商业投资——GDP的两个最重要组成部分——在本季度均有所增长.[14]
第二季度GDP初步数据显示，贸易顺差强劲，但消费者支出增长放缓, 服务支出增加，商品支出减少. 最大的负面因素是住宅建设放缓和企业库存增长大幅减少.[15] Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, 现在判断它们是预示着麻烦，还是仅仅是回归到更合适的水平还为时过早.[16] 经济学家可能不知道经济是否在收缩，直到有更多的月度数据.
The Inflation Factor
With employment at such high levels, 把目前的经济形势定性为经济衰退可能值得怀疑. However, the employment market could change, 经济衰退既可能是由经济基本面疲软造成的，也可能是由恐惧造成的.
The fear factor is inflation, which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981.[17] Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, 尽管就业市场强劲，许多消费者还是更加谨慎.[18] If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already under way.
通货膨胀迫使美联储(Federal Reserve)大举加息，目前利率为0.5月份基准联邦基金利率上调50%，随后又上调了0.5%.75% increases in June and July.[19] 加息的影响需要一段时间才能渗透到整个经济中, 中国经济是否会出现“软着陆”，还是会出现更剧烈的停顿，导致经济陷入衰退，还有待观察.
No one has a crystal ball, and economists' projections range widely, 从经济衰退的可能性很小，到2023年即将出现温和衰退.[20] If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, 重要的是要记住，衰退通常是短暂的, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months.[21] 简而言之:好时光通常比坏时光持续的时间更长.
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